Veronica Maimescu

Generative Artificial Intelligence has sparked intense debates and captured widespread attention in recent years, thanks to its explosive growth and widespread adoption across diverse sectors. With AI gaining unprecedented popularity, it’s no surprise that global institutions are diving into the realm of AI possibilities. And why wouldn’t they? AI boasts unparalleled versatility, capability, and the potential to completely transform countless fields.

But let’s not forget the world of diplomacy, where AI’s transformative impact looms large. While it promises boundless opportunities for growth, it also brings along implicit political risks that often lurk in the shadows of its groundbreaking advancements. Despite a surge in studies highlighting these risks, little action has been taken to address the looming threats.

In this article, we’ll venture into the realm of AI integration in diplomatic practices, shedding light on the myriad opportunities and potential risks associated with generative AI.

AI has the potential to shape international systems

from diplomatic relations to security systems.

Foremost, AI possesses the transformative potential to reimagine diplomatic processes and entire international systems, spanning from diplomatic relations to security frameworks. Such a shift would wield a profound impact on power dynamics, alliances, and the very essence of global peace, thus playing a pivotal role in shaping the world order. As Andrew Moore (2023) suggests, emerging technologies offer novel tools and techniques for peacemaking, ranging from the initial stages of negotiations to the enforcement of agreements.

Perhaps AI could bring a breath of fresh perspectives into the longstanding challenges of international diplomacy, particularly concerning resource limitations. By expediting communication and offering innovative solutions to existing issues, AI has the capacity to bolster international relations, if not ameliorate them. Alexander Hunt (2023) contends that AI has already proven invaluable in tasks ranging from drafting speeches and crafting press guidance to developing project proposals and managing social media presence. Similarly, Dastgeer (2023) posits that AI systems empower diplomats to make more informed decisions and predictions regarding various diplomatic scenarios. In essence, AI emerges as a potent tool for navigating cultural nuances and surmounting diplomatic obstacles.

AI could improve conflict resolution, humanitarian aid and diplomatic negotiations

The potential benefits of using artificial intelligence (AI) systems in diplomacy and international relations extend to conflict resolution, humanitarian aid and diplomatic negotiations. We could witness in no time improvements in these areas. For example, the AI-powered simulation models could can also simulate various conflict scenarios (Ramah, 2023). Also, it could provide valuable basis for policymakers and practitioners to explore potential outcomes, assess risks, and test different intervention strategies in a virtual environment.

However, it’s essential to recognise that while predicting various scenarios can be beneficial, it does not guarantee successful implementation of resolutions. This is because it requires both parties’ commitment to the agreed-upon plan, a task fraught with challenges such as spoilers, changing circumstances, and power dynamics.

In terms of humanitarian aid, AI technologies have the potential to revolutionise the field by facilitating more efficient and targeted delivery of assistance, conducting needs assessments, and allocating resources in crisis-affected regions. Spencer (2021) underscores two significant contributions: first, providing insights by analysing data and uncovering latent patterns that may elude human observation, and second, enhancing efficiency through automation. Indeed, AI algorithms could optimise supply chain logistics, route planning, and resource allocation to ensure timely and effective delivery of humanitarian assistance to those in need. However, realising the full potential of AI in humanitarian sector requires addressing ethical, legal, and governance challenges. There are still major barriers in terms of designing and implementing AI solutions in these domains, particularly because of high investments and the lack of immediate profit incentives.

As mentioned previously, AI could also support diplomatic negotiations by making improvements into the stages of negotiations. Lets take for example, the AI-powered natural language processing (NLP) algorithms which can facilitate communication and collaboration among diplomats from different countries and cultural backgrounds by enabling real-time language translation, summarisation, and sentiment analysis of negotiation texts. AI-driven data analytics can help traditional practices ands support diplomats identify common ground, anticipate negotiation dynamics, and explore potential trade-offs to reach mutually beneficial agreements (Tuset Varela, 2024).

“AI could prove to be a hugely disrupting force“

Rodrigo Márquez Lartigue 

While AI can offer valuable tools and insights to support diplomatic efforts, it is unlikely to solve major issues of which have significant implications for global stability, cooperation, and security. One of the reasons is that AI can constitute a stark reminder of global competition, thus intensifying the rush for power. For example, geopolitical tensions between major powers, such as the United States, China, Russia, and regional powers, contribute to rivalry and competition for influence. Disputes over territory, resources, and strategic interests can escalate into conflicts or fuel proxy wars, challenging diplomatic efforts to promote peace and cooperation.

Can AI do a better job than humans in term of speeding up diplomatic solutions and prevent conflicts through peaceful means? Well, it has the potential to evolve and improve, but it is still based on the principle of machine learning which means enabling computers to learn from provided data which has many flaws, the lack of data governance not only may create errors but also lead to AI disaster

Ensuring the integrity and reliability of AI systems is a perpetual endeavour, demanding constant monitoring, evaluation, and enhancement. However, these systems carry the risk of inadvertently exacerbating geopolitical tensions, perpetuating stereotypes, and amplifying biases. Consequently, the quality, quantity, and diversity of data are pivotal factors influencing their performance. While AI holds tremendous potential in data analysis, communication, and diplomatic solutions, practical implementation remains hindered by challenges such as the lack of power balance.

As we further explore the intersection of AI and diplomacy, it’s crucial to approach potential risks with vigilance to ensure that the benefits outweigh any drawbacks. While in a way utopian, achieving the full potential of AI in diplomacy requires collective and ongoing efforts to uphold integrity, reliability, and ethical standards in AI systems. Only through collaboration and innovation we can harness the transformative power of AI and create a more resilient and inclusive diplomatic landscape for the future.